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In December, Clarke-Samuel pleaded guilty at the Old Bailey to causing death by dangerous driving and an additional charge of dangerous driving.
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The productivity calculation
Smetters offered one note of caution about how war costs are typically framed. “One problem I have with cost-of-war calculations is that they really do ignore the counterfactual,” he said in a bit of an understatement. “If Iran really did get a nuclear weapon, then we might have spent a lot more on military and even repair of cities later on.”
This dynamic creates a seductive trap for the user. Because the model provides data points that fit the user’s request, the interaction feels productive. In our specific task, the user is not driven to a state where they become unhinged from reality, as the model selects valid examples that fit the true rule. Nevertheless, the mechanism creates a false sense of verification. If a user’s prior is grounded in reality, the model simply narrows their view; but if a user is uncertain or exploring a misconception, the model’s tendency to affirm that misconception can manufacture certainty where there should be doubt. The result is that users become very strongly committed to a belief for which there may only be a small amount of evidence.777This mechanism provides an account of belief maintenance consistent with cognitive models of delusion [bell_explaining_2006].